Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Thirst for Knowledge - On Probability and Tilt
Imagine this scenario if you will...
You're in the finals of a Pro Tour Qualifier with the Blue Envelop on the line. You have played tight magic all day to the point you haven't dropped a single match....
In game 1 of the finals, you have set up your opponent so that he will die to your attack next turn unless he draws the 1 copy of X left in his deck. Your opponent untaps, draws his card, and then casts X that he just topdecked. You scoop up your cards in a fit of rage, seething mad about what just transpired. You go to your sideboard, trying to remember what cards to side in against this matchup, still red-faced from the way the last game ended. Ten minutes later after a mulligan to 5, your dream of making the Pro Tour vanishes.
or this (starting around 5:11:42):
Now we may not have all been in that exact same scenario, but I can tell you the feeling is the same whether you're playing to make your first Top 8 of a major event or if your playing for a World Championship. It is downright depressing and maddening for something like that to happen. We have a term for that.
It is called Tilt or Tilting. The term comes from another card game, Poker. The definition of Tilt via Wikipedia:
Tilt is a state of mental or emotional confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive. This term is closely associated with steam and some consider the terms equivalent, but 'steam' typically carries more anger and intensity.
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| Not that kind of Tilt... |
If you want to lose that spot in Top 8, that Blue Envelop, or that Pro Tour Championship, go ahead and tilt. Getting mad and pouting over what happened or talking about your bad beats story isn't going to fix the problem.
So what is?
Steps to control Tilt
1. Know your percentages
Even if you play your game extremely well, there will still be ways for your opponent to shift momentum back to him or possibly win the game outright. This one is about knowing your opponents outs. Constructed is usually easy to have an idea about how many cards they could have in their deck that deals with the situation then it is just simple math. Is there any wonder why most pro players would rather play a Control deck? The deck is designed to draw more cards so that they have a better opportunity to find their outs over the course of a game or match.
2. Practice Your Game (Plan A and Post-Error Plan B)
Below was an exert taken from a Channel Fireball article, In Development - On Tilt by Alexander Shearer:
It’s tempting to go off plan when we are upset, or feel like the universe is conspiring against us. We make riskier keeps – or overly “safe” ones. We cast cascade spells without thinking about what we are likely to cascade into because “maybe we’ll get lucky.”
It’s pretty much the definition of being on tilt.
We can prevent this if, when we’re playing casually, or testing, or at FNM, we have a plan and then stick to that plan. The stress you experience during testing is (hopefully) less than at a PTQ, GP, or even at FNM, so it lets you practice following your plan.
Do this enough times, and it’ll be natural to you even when you’re upset because your opponent egregious misplays on a regular basis. But he smiles, takes it in stride, and either recovers within that game or goes on to win the match as a whole.
Why does this even matter? Just watch the final game of the 2005 World Championship Quarterfinals between Makihito Mihara and Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa:
Did you see what happened there? Makihito Mihara playing UR Dragonstorm punted because he miscounted his mana. He nearly tilted but that didn't stop him from trying to find a solution. He found another way to go off and wins the match and the World Championship.
Has this scenario come up in playtesting or a local event and you just scooped? Never scoop til they kill you. You could be in a spot like Mihara was. You could be in the Quarterfinals of the World Championship with money and prestige on the line. Would you just concede there? Would you have passed the turn and taken the mana burn (it still existed back then) and let Paulo take the match from you?
Magic is an incredibly difficult game with combinations that make Chess look like Checkers. Mistakes are going to happen even if you have practiced normal game scenarios 100 times. So when I say practice Plan A, that would be your normal game strategy for winning against a certain deck. When I say practice Post-Error Plan B, that means to continue playing the game after your 'punt' and see if your can find a way to win the game despite the decision you made. This is to show you that despite a momentary lapse in judgment, you can still win. If you play through your mistakes, you will train yourself not to tilt and you'll be able to advance your game to the next level.
If you go back to the first video of Team Phyrexia Eddie Walker, you can tell that he was shaking his head after game 1 because realized he missed his trigger, against a Hall of Famer in Shuuhei Nakamura. You could tell though that it did not effect him in games 2 or 3. Eddie continued to play his game and make Nakamura play reactive. Even though Eddie lost game 3 and the match, he made Shuuhei draw 1 of his 2 outs (he had drafted 3 Grisly Spectacle, 1 was already played). During that game at 5:34:58, Eddie is able to cast his Obzedat with Extort and really start to put Shuuhei behind the 8 ball. Shuuhei doesn't panic and puts together a plan to last as long as he possibly can while digs for removal for Obzedat, finds the removal, and then starts clawing his way back with card advantage until he puts Eddie in the same spot but Eddie isn't able to draw the cards he needs to recover from the momentum shift.
To his credit, Eddie does not tilt at all and even finishes 4 pts better and 48 places better than Shuuhei Nakaura in the standings.
So next time you get ready to prepare for a big event, remember to practice through your mistakes and know the numbers. I promise you won't be as upset if it happens.
Bradley Reeves
@YawgmothsWill
Infecting Magic One Grinder At A Time
Has this scenario come up in playtesting or a local event and you just scooped? Never scoop til they kill you. You could be in a spot like Mihara was. You could be in the Quarterfinals of the World Championship with money and prestige on the line. Would you just concede there? Would you have passed the turn and taken the mana burn (it still existed back then) and let Paulo take the match from you?
Magic is an incredibly difficult game with combinations that make Chess look like Checkers. Mistakes are going to happen even if you have practiced normal game scenarios 100 times. So when I say practice Plan A, that would be your normal game strategy for winning against a certain deck. When I say practice Post-Error Plan B, that means to continue playing the game after your 'punt' and see if your can find a way to win the game despite the decision you made. This is to show you that despite a momentary lapse in judgment, you can still win. If you play through your mistakes, you will train yourself not to tilt and you'll be able to advance your game to the next level.
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| Got one coming in hot... |
To his credit, Eddie does not tilt at all and even finishes 4 pts better and 48 places better than Shuuhei Nakaura in the standings.
So next time you get ready to prepare for a big event, remember to practice through your mistakes and know the numbers. I promise you won't be as upset if it happens.
Bradley Reeves
@YawgmothsWill
Infecting Magic One Grinder At A Time
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Excellent post, Brad. You are correct. That head shaking was me realizing the missed trigger. I felt so stupid after that, and it actually did cause a misplay in Game 2 as pointed out by Flores and Hunt during commentary. I should not have tipped my hand about Obzedat at the end of that game, as I had the game completely under control, but I wanted to go ahead and end the game quickly. Had I not done that, Shuhei might not have played around the possibility of Obzedat in Game 3.
ReplyDeleteIt's possible. He knew you had the Deathpact Angel in your deck thought but unfortunately it was milled away by the Spectacle in Game 3. I know that when Flores and Hunt were going over Shuuhei's deck list they said he had 3 Grisly Spectacle, 1 (or 2) Devour Flesh, 1 Angelic Edict, and 1 copy of One Thousand Lashes. The only card that could have saved you in game 3 was Immortal Servitude.
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