This is an interesting concept, one that a lot of players don't truly understand or appreciate.  Let me give you some insight into this powerful concept.




Lets take this past weekend's Pro Tour Return to Ravnica.  Stanslav Cifka played a deck that was a historical combo deck called Eggs (after the original cards from Onslaught that were used as the mana engine and card draw).  Here was his version:


Why did this deck (and Cifka) beat a metagame full of Jund and Affinity?  There were several reasons.

1. Cifka (and his team) correctly predicted the metagame.

Look at the metagame breakdown from PT RTR:

Correctly guessing the metagame allows you (and your team) to build a deck to destroy the metagame.  The deck was designed where it would be faster than the combo decks in Modern (Storm, Kiki-Pod, Valakut, Twin) and faster than the aggro decks.  Where it could have had issues was against pure control decks like WU Control, which is why Cifka played Silence.

Silence stops your opponent from casting spells so they have to waste mana and a counterspell to stop it and this leaves them vulnerable to being combo'd out during the early game, which was Cifka's plan.

2. Cifka playtested his deck and knew what cards to be aware of and how to play around them

This part is very important.  He knew what hands that he could keep and still combo off.  Twice Cifka kept no land hands and still combo killed his opponent on turn 4.  How?  Because both those hands had Lotus Bloom(s) in them.

Let me give you some more examples of why knowing what cards to be aware of and how to play around them was so important.  In round 12, Cifka played Jund piloted by Yuuya Watanabe.  In Game 1, Cifka killed Watanabe with a no land hand.  In Game 2 on turn 4, Cifka plays Faith's Reward, Watanabe responses by casting Jund Charm to try and exile Cifka's graveyard.  Cifka repondes by casting Second Sunrise and kills Watanabe.  By playing around Jund Charm, he was able to win a game that an unprepared player would not have been able to win.

Ridiculous right?  He wasn't done with his amazing play or decision making.  The deck wins by recycling a Pyrite Spellbomb over and over to kill you via damage but Cifka also had a backup plan in his sideboard.  He told Brian David-Marshall that in one match against another Jund player after winning Game 1 got hit with a Slaughter Games naming Pyrite Spellbomb...and he sided the Spellbomb out for Grapeshot!

3. Very few players expected to see Second Sunrise deck at PT Return to Ravnica

There were only 8 players who played the deck on Day 1 and 3 of those made Day 2 with only Cifka making Top 8 and winning the whole thing.  That was a very small portion of the field (2.09%) and one which most players completely discounted.  Players were getting prepared to play hordes of Jund, Robots, Storm, Splinter Twin, Kiki-Pod, and (what they thought was going to be an amazing deck) Valakut + Scapeshift.  All of the decks in the format had set their sights on these so they made sure that they had a  sideboard plan for the major decks.  There were very few cards that decks had to defeat Eggs.  Most players had some sort of Graveyard removal (Jund Charm, Relic of Progentitus), Combo control (Rule of Law, Ethersworn Canonist, Aven Mindcensor) and many players had Leyline of Sanctity.  Cifka knew what sideboard cards he would face and learned how to play around them.  Echoing Truth was his best weapon against permanents that shut of his combo as he could bounce most of them at the end of his opponents turn and combo them on his turn.

4. This is not the first time a 'Rogue' deck has won a Pro Tour

There are countless records of decks that weren't on anyone's radar before a Pro Tour / Grand Prix that sneaked in and won the whole thing.  Pro Tour Avacyn Restored was won by Alexander Hayne playing WU Miracles and he was the only person playing that deck.  Grand Prix Lincoln was won by Bronson Magnan playing Life from the Loam / Dark Confidant engine (called Aggro Loam) and absolutely no one expected that deck on that weekend (granted this was an older strategy, but one that no one expected to show up).

Take these lessons with you the next time you prepare for a major event and see if you can dominate the metagame.