Monday, January 28, 2013
Thirst for Knowledge - The Modern Banning Effect
Imagine for a moment a Modern format without Jund as we have known it for the past several years (Standard, Extended and then Modern). Now imagine a Modern format without Storm. This PTQ season was just disrupted by an episode of the Twilight Zone...
Wait, you mean this actually did happen? At Midnight EST, Wizards of the Coast R&D posted the surprise Banned and Restricted list. Most of the player base was looking for a card to be unbanned (including yours truly) but Wizards didn't want to chance unbanning something that they would need to ban again later.
Bloodbraid Elf was the one Cascade card you saw at the top tables. Occasionally you saw the Living End deck that cycles through its deck and casts either Violent Outburst or Demonic Dread and Cascades into a Living End into a bunch of creatures you cycled but not very often. All of the other Cascade cards didn't have relevant enough abilities or were too expensive to cast in Modern.
Bloodbraid Elf was a simple 3/2 with Haste that usually allowed you to cast a card of converted mana cost of 3 or less for free. BBE was a 2-for-1 in the midrange deck of the format, Jund. Most of the basic Jund deck is played on a 1-for-1 basis with few 2-for-1 (Deathrite Shaman, Dark Confidant, Bloodbraid Elf).
Does the Jund deck survive this banning? All of the green and black cards in the deck do, however the red cards might get replaced with another color at this point. Lightning Bolt is still one of the most effective burn spells printed. Huntmaster of the Fells has been talked about as a replacement (another 2-for-1) and some players have even talked about going back to Kitchen Finks. Others have suggested the shift back to Doran as the midrange deck of choice. Only time and testing will give us this answer but you can be sure of one thing: the best cards in a format will get played in one deck or another. The idea behind Jund will survive.
Storm, on the other hand, was the Extended and Modern format's long standing combo deck. Storm survived the first major ban in September 2011 when the Wizards hit Rite of Flame, Ponder, and Preordain. That ban hit the consistency of the deck. They thought that would keep the deck's speed down. In my opinion, that ban did its job. Wizards didn't agree.
With the banning of Seething Song, Storm is no long brewing in Modern. What gets me about the banning of Seething Song was Wizards statement about why they banned the cards per Eric Lauer:
The DCI's other primary goal for Modern is to not have top tier decks that frequently win on turn three (or earlier). Looking at the results of the recent tournaments, Storm is not the most played deck, but it is among the top tier of decks. Four of the players to get at least 18 points at Pro Tour Return to Ravnica were playing Storm, and Olivier Ruel had a Top 8 performance at Grand Prix Lyon playing Storm. On Magic Online, Storm is the second-most-frequent high-finishing deck in Modern events, at 11.42%, behind only Jund. These results indicate that, while far from dominant, Storm is a top tier deck. Looking at the results of games, turn-three wins are frequent for Storm, contrary to the DCI's stated goals for the format. The DCI looked for a card that was very important to the turn-three wins but not one of the cards that make this deck unique. We decided Seething Song is the best choice. Even with no other mana acceleration, one can cast Seething Song on turn three and it gives a net acceleration of +2 mana. While there are other options for fast mana, none appear as efficient and reliable on turn three as Seething Song.While I agree on its consistency, it does not consistently go off on Turn 3 (this depends on which version you are playing). Goblin Electromancer certainly helped the deck go off sooner (all my rituals cost 1 less to cast and Past In Flames cost 1 less...sweet!) but I still haven't seen enough evidence that it was consistently a Turn 3 deck.
There is another side effect to banning Seething Song. Storm was one of the cheapest decks to build in the Modern format. This certainly hurts players who were interested in playing an Eternal format (especially if they like the idea of combo decks) where the money barrier was a problem to begin with.
So where do the players go from here? Hitting the Storm deck certainly frees up sideboard cards slots to fight other Tier 1 decks (Twin, Pod, Affinity). So what deck becomes the new cheap combo deck to replace Storm? Infect and Hexproof Enchantments looks to be the fastest of the decks available but both of those decks can be fragile due to the low number of creatures that can lead to some terrible mulligans.
Ladies and Gentleman, its time to start brewing again in Modern.
Bradley Reeves
@YawgmothsWill
"Two magi could trade spells all day and never crown a victor. The real battle is not one of power but of will. If your confidence breaks, so too shall you." —Venser
Subscribe to:
Post Comments
(Atom)
I actually agree with the reasoning behind Seething song. No it wasn't a consistent turn 3 especially in the face of distruption, but it was a highly likely turn 3 when they weren't being thoughtsized out of the game. Appearently the turn 3 rate was high enough to make them act. and Song was the correct ritual to take out. it was the ritual that allowed for turn 3, it also made going off more consistent, especially with electromancer in play.
ReplyDeleteBanning Bloodbraid Elf however is a slippery slope that should signal to anyone paying attention that there will not be a unbanning anytime soon (I thought Valakut was a dumb unban). Don't get me wrong, for the reasons stated (all valid) banning bloodbraid was the right call. Jund was overly dominate taking 4 of the last 5 large Modern events, maintaining 25% of the field or more the whole time. That deck needed to be hit. Bloodbraid Elf was really the only only card in the deck that was exclusive to Jund. You can't ban Thoughtsieze because you have to keep Combo in check some how. you can't ban Goyf (or bob to that extent) because you have to sell modern masters this summer. everything else in the deck isn't a 4-of piece of the shell, or not apart of some other deck.
However the biggest reason to Ban BBE is that It takes away the discussion of unbanning Jace, the Mindsculptor. In a format that is practically half Bloodbraid Elf, Big Papa Jace is a fairly safe card to have in the format. However what adding him to the format is take some players off of jund, making the format seem more Diverse and less top heavy with jund. Unbanning him however is a Headache because the preconcieved notion of everyone who remembered the 6 months of CawBlade that you somehow need a playset of jaces to be competitive in the format. A playset that could easily cost almost 500$ if the announcement was made in the middle of the modern PTQ season.
As for the future of Jund. I don't think the real deck that Jund was in this format (Midrange pile of goodstuff) goes away. the GB part of the shell is really strong, most players will just go back to Doran. Lingering Souls was already a thing in jund. maybe the Card advantage 2-1 can become Restoration angel instead of BBE.
I am also ok with the bannings. I think it wouldn't be too difficult to -4 BBE +4 Huntmaster in Modern Jund. It will be less consistent, but I still think it is a viable deck. Deathrite Shaman, Dark Confidant, and Tarmagoyf are still very good cards.
ReplyDeleteOr go Junk/Doran with it. take it more aggressive.
ReplyDelete