Welcome back to another Ideas Unbound. The first major Standard event using Theros is in the books. Today we are going to look at those results and see if we can get an idea of where the format is heading. I’m still planning on attending Grand Prix Louisville, and I want to try to have a firm grasp on the metagame.



As is usual for the first event of a new format, StarCityGames has provided us with the top 32 decklists from the event. It looks like we have three contenders for the title of Current Top Deck: UW/Esper Control, Mono-Red Aggro, and RG/Naya Midrange. This isn’t really all that surprising when we consider that these decks were practically known quantities already, going into the event. We should start to see a more interesting metagame as the weeks progress and people really start to discover the full potential of the cards in Theros.

For now, let’s look at a sample list for each of these three archetypes and see what we can glean from them.

UW/Esper Control

This was the most popular archetype in the Top 32 of SCG Worchester. While Esper was the more popular variant on the day, the UW version had a higher finish. Let’s take a look at the differences between the two by evaluating the decklists of Max Tietze and Christian Calcano who finished 2nd and 4th respectively:

	Max Tietze UW Control 2nd	Christian Calcano Esper Control 4th
Creatures	1 Aetherling	2 Aetherling
Planewalkers	2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion 4 Jace, Architect of Thought	3 Jace, Architect of Thought
Spells	2 Ratchet Bomb 4 Detention Sphere 4 Azorius Charm 1 Celestial Flare 2 Dissolve 1 Essence Scatter 1 Quicken 3 Sphinx's Revelation 2 Syncopate 3 Divination 4 Supreme Verdict	2 Detention Sphere 4 Azorius Charm 2 Dissolve 2 Doom Blade 1 Essence Scatter 4 Far // Away 2 Hero's Downfall 3 Sphinx's Revelation 3 Syncopate 1 Merciless Eviction 4 Supreme Verdict
Lands	8 Island 8 Plains 4 Azorius Guildgate 4 Hallowed Fountain 2 Mutavault	4 Island 3 Plains 1 Swamp 1 Azorius Guildgate 4 Godless Shrine 4 Hallowed Fountain 3 Temple of Deceit 3 Temple of Silence 4 Watery Grave
Sideboard	2 Pithing Needle 2 Yoked Ox 1 Celestial Flare 2 Last Breath 3 Negate 2 Jace, Memory Adept 3 Glare of Heresy	3 Blood Baron of Vizkopa 3 Sin Collector 2 Detention Sphere 1 Negate 2 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver 1 Merciless Eviction 3 Thoughtseize

Both of these decks are trying to accomplish the same thing. They want to control the early game with removal spells and Supreme Verdict while making land drops to fuel a large Sphinx's Revelation. Once control is firmly established, they look to close out the game with an Aetherling or a Planeswalker. The differences are in how each deck accomplishes this.
For starters, you will notice Max only has one Aetherling to Christian's two. This is because Max has chosen to play Elspeth as an additional finisher. Between my own testing and watching a little coverage this weekend, I can tell you: Elspeth is insane. The ability to add three bodies to the board every turn while increasing her loyalty is extremely powerful. Resolving her will stop most attacks in their tracks. And if the creatures are too large for your Soldiers to deal with, she always has the -3 to set them back.

Max also has the full compliment of Jace, Architect of Thought. This guy is also very efficient at slowing down aggressive decks while providing you an option for digging deeper into your deck to find a more permanent solution. He is almost like a fog that gains you some life and then draws you some cards. And that's when he is at his worst. Jace will certainly continue to see play throughout his tenure in Standard.

Once we move into the spell section we start to see the real differences between these decks. Let's first take a look at where their spell slots overlap. This is a good indication of what the core of WU based control decks are going to look like at the beginning of this Standard.

2 Detention Sphere
4 Azorius Charm
2 Dissolve
1 Essence Scatter
3 Sphinx's Revelation
2 Sycopate
4 Supreme Verdict

We see a playset of Azorius Charm allowing both decks to deal with early aggressive creatures and giving them a tempo boost. Both sides are playing the full complment of Supreme Verdicts as well. This is almost certainly necessary in a world with Burning-Tree Emissary and Firedrinker Satyr. You also see a smattering of counterspells, though I am surprised by the single Essence Scatter in both lists. I would expect 2-3 to make sure you can counter troublesome creatures before they resolve. This could have been because of the new format and no one knowing what the meta would look like. We may see a change in the counterspell choices over the next few weeks.
Now lets take a look at what spells were different

Max	Christian
2 Ratchet Bomb 2 Detention Sphere 1 Celestial Flare 1 Quicken 3 Divination	2 Doom Blade 4 Far // Away 2 Hero's Downfall 1 Merciless Eviction 1 Syncopate

The two extra Detention Spheres in Max's deck are basically equivalent to the two Hero's Downfall in Christian's. They both eliminiate creatures and planewalkers effectivly. Max gives up instant speed to also be able to deal with a problem enchantment and/or artifact, like Hammer of Purphoros. Max also has the two of Ratchet Bomb to add to his sweeper count while Christian has the one Merciless Eviction. I really like the Ratchet Bomb here, especially in a world where mono-red is a deck. Getting this to two counters is almost like another Supreme Verdict. However, Merciless Eviction does have the bonus of exiling and hitting more than just creatures. This makes it very good against Lions, Gods, and Planeswalkers OH MY!.

The biggest difference is that Max is playing Divination where Christian is playing Far // Away. This give Max the ability to smooth out his draws and ensure that he hits his land drops. On the other hand, Christian gets the ability to two-for-one alot of his opponents.
Looking at the lands is where we see the biggest disparity in the decks and why UW is even being considered over Esper. Christian has 7 lands that have to come into play tapped, while Max only has 4. Christian also has 12 Shocklands to Max's 4. This means Christian's mana is very taxed in the early game.

Imagine a scenario where Christian is on the draw against Mono-red and has a hand with Temple of Deciet, Azorius Guildgate, and Godless Shrine. If he wants to hit a Doom Blade or Azorius Charm on turn 2, he is going to have to take 2 damage, which isn't really that different than just taking the hit from a Firedrinker Satyr or Rakdos Cackler. Max has a whopping 16 basic lands to help ensure he can cast a counterspell or Azorius Charm on turn 2 without much issue. This also frees up a couple of slots for Max to play Mutavaults. Mutavault makes a great blocker in the late game if you are hitting land drops. It also gives Max another way to finish a game if necessary.

While both decks had a fair showing in the upper tables, I myself am leaning toward the UW version. I like the idea of my lands coming into play untapped. With mono-red winning the event we may see stock in Mountains rise over the next few weeks and I want to be able to play my spells early without taking a ton of damage to do so. The additional options for removal are nice, but I don't think they are necessary in the long run.

Mono-Red

Speaking of the winning deck, lets look at the reigning King of New Standard.

Decklist

It is not surprising to me that a deck like this won. In the early days of a new format, people will lean toward aggro decks, because they are proactive. You don't really care what your opponents are trying to do. You are going to follow your gameplan and hope its successful.

This deck is just a little slower than some of the mono-red decks that we see, but it trades that speed for a much better endgame. Alot of the cards in this deck are heavy on red mana symbols. This allows the deck to deal massive amounts of damage with Fanatic of Mogis. It is not uncommon for this guy to do an immediate 5-6 damage on turn 4, before you even attack for the turn. If you are on the play against one of the above decks, they haven't even had a chance to play a Supreme Verdict yet. It also allows for big comebacks after a Supreme Verdict as well.
Boros Reckoner is also big game agains the faster mono-red decks. Your opponent is not going to swing with a Firedrinker Satyr if you have a Boros Reckoner ready to block. It also makes opposing Anger of the Gods much worse for them. I expect to see many Boros Reckoners in the future of this Standard. He was already a very good creature, but the fact that he provides 3 red devotion AND 3 white devotion makes him even better now.

Let's take a look at the other side of the coin.

Owen's list

Owen has opted for a more all-in red aggro deck. He has a full 12 one drops, each capable of attacking for 2 on turn 2. He follows that up with 14 2-drops, all of which are playable off of Burning-Tree Emissary. His only 3-drops are Chandra's Phoenix. This combination of creatures allows for some very explosive starts that have the potential to kill your opponent before they have a chance to do anything. On the flip side though, this makes Owen's deck very weak to any sort of disruption from the opponent. A Supreme Verdict is going to cripple this deck a lot of times. It doesn't have anything big to follow up a Verdict giving your opponent time to recover from your initial onslaught.
I do like a few of the choices in Owen's list though. I don't think people are giving Gore-House Chainwalker enough credit as a 2-drop in mono-red. While I think Ash Zealot is the obvious best two drop, it is unplayable after a Burning-Tree Emissary. Gore-House Chainwalker makes up the damage difference in two swings, while also giving you the ability to beat Sylvan Caryatid and Omenspeaker in combat. While there are arguments for both, I think the Chainwalker is better if you are not on the Fanatic plan.

I do think mono-red will be a contender in this new Standard, I'm not sure if it will remain the reigning king. Now that we have lists to look at, the midrange and control decks are going to be able to adjust to deal with the threats proposed by mono-red. However, it will still be a good deck, because it is really good at punishing opponents who stumble and will lead to many free wins as a result.

RG Monsters

Decklist

This deck is trying to ramp out powerful creatures faster than your opponent can keep up. With 4 Elvish Mystic and 4 Sylvan Caryatid it is very possible to hit Polukranos or Ember Swallower on turn 3. This is going to put your opponent in some serious trouble if they do not have an answer for it. The mono-red decks are not happy when you untap with Polukranos because he is probably going to eat their world.
Storm-Breath Dragon is another creature poised to make a big splash in Standard. He is big and hits quickly. Protection from white is not an irrelevant ability and is especially important if the control decks tend more toward WU over Esper. Esper decks have Doom Blade and Far // Away to deal with this guy even if he resolves. The WU players better hope to have a counterspell to deal with him. And he is very good at deal with opposing Elspeths, flying over her Soldier tokens the turn he comes and mostly likely leaving her without enough loyalty to use her sweeper.

Having both Chandra and Domri are great ways for this deck to generate card advantage. A turn 2 Domri against control decks is going to allow you to keep up on card advantage while working toward an ultimate that they will be hard pressed to deal with. Chandra allows you to deal with troublesome blockers the turn she comes down, and then start providing a steady stream of cards afterward.
This is one of the best decks for Mizzium Mortars. It allows you deal with problem creatures like Blood Baron of Vizkopa, and you have the potential to ramp into Overload against the agressive decks, working like a pseudo-Bonfire. Also, nailing a Firedrinker Satyr with Mizzium Mortars is a very good feeling.

Wrap Up

So far, the metagame is looking pretty much like I thought it would. I have been testing with decks very similar to these and knew that they were strong contenders. Now that we have a baseline for the format though, we will start to see some more fringe strategies popping up looking to take advantage of the weaknesses of these decks.

I would not be surprised to see GW aggro decks coming up soon. They are matched up well agains the mono-red decks because their creatures are generally bigger. Puts a stop to most of their one and two-drops while providing a nice life cushion and I'm not sure they are supposed to handle Trostani.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a WB midrange deck pop up. Sin Collector is very good against the control decks, while Blood Baron and Obzedat are good at building up your life total against the aggro decks. And I don't think we've seen the full potential of Whip of Erebos. This card looks like its powerful enough to see play. I look forward to the upcoming Open Series results as we lead into Pro Tour Theros next weekend. By then we should have a much clearer picture of the metagame.